How much of your book renews?
A single retention forecast is a wish. Split your book by health, then simulate the renewal year five thousand times to see your expected retained ARR, the accounts most likely to churn, and — crucially — the range you should actually be planning around.
Size it and split it by health.
Healthy accounts renew ~95% of the time, neutral ~85%, at-risk ~60%. Adjust the mix to match your book.
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Retained ARR, 5,000 simulated years.
Each run renews every account at its segment’s probability. The spread is the point: your retention is a distribution, and planning to the mean alone ignores the downside.
The catch: —
Retention is a forecast too — and usually a worse one than new business.
Net revenue retention now drives valuation, yet most teams forecast it with a single optimistic number and no range. Whether your retention forecast is trusted, evidenced, and segmented is part of Forecasting Trust, one of six dimensions in the Readiness Index. See where it stands.